Don’t buy into the ‘Big Mac Meteorology’ of mainstream media too much – there’s not much weather science underlying a ‘Mega’ or ‘Super’ label for El Niño.
It’s just another way of saying ‘Strong,’ according to Brandon Thorne, a meteorologist out of the National Weather Service’s Shreveport office.
It will have an effect, Thorne added, albeit within current expectations and later in the year.
East Texas is currently in “neutral condition” through June, “Then the El Niño is likely to emerge more into the fall and winter months,” he said. “This is going to bring cooler and slightly wetter conditions to East Texas.
“It can increase all kinds of things – flood risks, the possibility of more winter weather.”
Flood forecasts are something Gladewater officials monitor closely in light of the ‘Poor’ condition of the Lake Gladewater Dam. City personnel keep a close eye on the lake level and have a standing set of emergency procedures in place should the water start to creep too high for comfort.
That’s hardly the case at the moment: post April showers and midway into March, the Sabine River’s currently sitting at just below 6 feet, well below the ‘Minor Flooding’ stage of 26 feet.
Data on-hand at the NWS Shreveport office underscores current drought conditions as of May 5. An update is due today, Thursday, May 14.
As of Monday, “It does show you guys are in E3, which is ‘Extreme Drought’ range,” Thorne confirmed. “Any recent rainfall we’ve gotten has to be factored into what we’re currently seeing.
“The new map will be released on Thursday. We should see, hopefully, a little bit of improvement.”
Texas A&M University’s Keetch-Byrum Drought Index showed a wide range of drought condition across the expanse of Texas as of May 11. Gregg County and Upshur are in the second tier KBDI value of 200-300, far from the dry weather danger zone of 700-plus.
As for El Niño, be wary of clickbait labels.
“The ‘Mega,’ the ‘Super,’ it’s just people adding to it get attention. It’s not an official thing,” Thorne said. “They just like to use those words because ‘strong’ El Niño doesn’t grab attention the same way.”
